Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.808793 0.946869 1.101276 1.286754 1.503560 1.749050 2.048260
2024-11-03 0.589508 0.772112 1.000067 1.305635 1.704868 2.209323 2.896227
2024-11-10 0.498336 0.707012 0.988743 1.397120 1.974749 2.764000 3.927226
2024-11-17 0.424628 0.642793 0.956654 1.441429 2.172761 3.237537 4.911135
2024-11-24 0.362129 0.579707 0.910347 1.449808 2.310182 3.633405 5.832109
2024-12-01 0.310026 0.521649 0.859314 1.437822 2.407367 3.973154 6.707201
2024-12-08 0.269756 0.474974 0.817309 1.430543 2.505831 4.321528 7.638782
2024-12-15 0.240576 0.441771 0.791487 1.444325 2.637997 4.738486 8.740431
2024-12-22 0.206761 0.394853 0.734579 1.393664 2.646780 4.938440 9.479054
2024-12-29 0.198075 0.392556 0.756808 1.489707 2.935676 5.678198 11.317573
2025-01-05 0.173393 0.355883 0.709587 1.446189 2.951125 5.905468 12.197206
2025-01-12 0.151805 0.322137 0.663224 1.397234 2.947633 6.092720 13.018385
2025-01-19 0.133027 0.291966 0.620911 1.352669 2.951235 6.303429 13.939171
2025-01-26 0.122540 0.277995 0.610311 1.374039 3.098516 6.834482 15.631966
2025-02-02 0.119323 0.279479 0.632705 1.470425 3.423320 7.789338 18.405952
2025-02-09 0.112425 0.271531 0.633138 1.517070 3.641940 8.538362 20.818383
2025-02-16 0.103608 0.257748 0.618347 1.525891 3.773031 9.104427 22.879723
2025-02-23 0.094444 0.241743 0.596077 1.513274 3.850032 9.552121 24.714784
2025-03-02 0.086585 0.227840 0.576949 1.505612 3.938008 10.037662 26.716545
2025-03-09 0.080729 0.218226 0.567102 1.520119 4.084486 10.688168 29.242700
2025-03-16 0.072113 0.200084 0.533175 1.466793 4.045457 10.859154 30.515042
2025-03-23 0.071445 0.203384 0.555529 1.567889 4.436900 12.212455 35.233058
2025-03-30 0.064448 0.188074 0.526127 1.522081 4.415667 12.452416 36.851319